Cloud is Down

Yes, even the cloud can go down!

For the many firms, including the SEC and CIA, who run their infrastructure in the AWS cloud, Tuesday’s outage was a pain. The economic impact of the outage will easily be in the many tens of millions.

It is particularly poignant as it comes at a time when so many core processes are moving into the public cloud and more and more capital market participants are building in the cloud, or toward a cloud future, as we discussed in The Cloud Comes of Age in the Capital Markets: All Clear for More Cloud.

This outage is a reminder that not only can all technology fail at some point, but it will. The scale of this week’s outage, along with its rarity makes it newsworthy. However, the scale masks the simple truth that the net downtime of this failure is far less than the aggregate downtime, had all impacted firms been running their own infrastructure.

Furthermore, it is a lesson for firms moving into the cloud to consider how to best manage risk profiles across various clouds and models, or ensuring that they are running across regions (a single AWS region went down).

But the news flow now suggests the most common point of failure: the human. And, of course, the proverbial fat finger. As in many cases, in market technology failures, it is at the human/machine interface that is the weakest link.

This is a time to learn, access the risk and move forward.

Human and Machine-Rise of the Cyborg: The Cycle of Voice Trading

Celent has explored voice trading in Human & Machine-Rise of the Cyborg: The Cycle of Voice Trading, published yesterday. In this piece, we look at the power of voice trading as well as the business drivers, challenges and forces that are driving change in voice communication, collaboration and voice market engagement.

Celent believes that voice is a key channel that will remain relevant and will work more seamlessly with electronic and data channels in the coming years. A move toward unified communication approach and advances in technologies, combined with a challenging business environment, are reshaping the modern trading desk. Cost cutting, front office effectiveness, gleaning better insight into customer behaviour combined with digital automation are pushing this frontier forward. Voice trading remains the major channel for transferring risk, across asset classes, yet remains a challenge due to the difficulties in leveraging this unstructured data set.

Advances in both preparing and leveraging data for advanced analytics are creating a demand for business insights-the demand for better data is ever growing. Firms are beginning to leverage advanced data tools for not only risk mitigation and regulatory requirements, but are creating front office opportunities for better counterparty engagement and communication.

Fintech continues to advance in the capital markets and the implications are profound for incumbent players. Firms that effectively leverage the full spectrum of innovation available are becoming more streamlined and more effective. The overarching need for business model evolution and the importance of technology in the markets continues to ramp up. As one example,last week alternative dealer Citadel Securities hired Microsoft COO to be the new CEO of it electronic market making business.

We are surrounded by advances in voice technology for interacting with machines in our life in general. We are getting comfortable with Apple’s Siri on mobile, and Amazon's Echo in our homes. Similar technologies have advanced in areas outside the capital markets, but leading firms are trying to leverage voice data for better insight, engagement, and automation. While we are nowhere near Robotic Stingray Powered by Heart Cells from Rats published in last week’s WSJ, in merging machine and biological elements we are heading more into an era of the cyborg-where capital market participants will increase their direct engagement with machines via voice interaction.

Future architecture: All roads lead to Cloud

Present vs. Future-State Architecture

Our frenetic activity of client meetings, briefings, conferences, and events heated up in the last few months. We recently spoke to audiences in New York, London, and Tokyo.

The present environment of cost-cutting, evaluation of profitability, capital efficiency, and compliance implementation is consuming much management attention and IT budgets. Operational efficiency and operational risk mitigation are top of mind.

However, across our client base and network of financial institutions and vendors, there is also a continued desire to understand emerging technologies like blockchain/DL and artificial intelligence. Many of you are expressing a strong interest in our opinions on the future state of the technology architecture in parallel with these day-to-day operational considerations.

From this vantage point, we believe the potential of blockchain technology (including smart contracts), IoT, and artificial intelligence will drive incremental IT spending going forward as solutions are implemented, further uses cases are developed and tested, and ecosystems and IT partnerships are expanded.

All Roads Lead to Rome Cloud

With respect to the future IT architecture, one striking conclusion we've reached is that all roads lead to cloud. For instance, major blockchain use cases are being built atop cloud providers. Technology firms such as AWS, IBM, Microsoft, and others appear to be prime beneficiaries of this frenetic activity, some of which is strategic, and some of which may be simply tactical and later disappear. In addition, artificial intelligence may be best leveraged in the future with data that resides in the cloud as opposed to in siloed business operations. Moreover, wealth managers increasingly are considering cloud-deployed solutions. Even compliance (e.g. RegTech) is increasingly being sold "as a service".

Clearly not all capital markets, wealth management, and asset management operations are cloud-friendly, both now and in the future, but many types of operations will move to the cloud.

We see this happening gradually and powered by availability, greater standardization, and creative vendor offerings across a spectrum (from ITO and BPO to managed services, utilities, and yes … cloud possibilities throughout).